Smackdown 2008: The Last Supper Before The Deluge (Or, Doing It For Toot)
F*ck the Republicans!!!, Fighting The Good Fight, Political Smackdown 2008!!! November 3rd, 2008
Finally….the end of a long and boisterous political campaign. Eat, drink, and be merry, Clones, for tomorrow, we vote.
If anybody thought as late as this time last year that we would be speaking tonight about being in the threshold of electing the first person of color to the office of President of the United States of America, they would be either be said to be on crack or deluded.
And yet…barring a seismic cataclysm, we will have Barack Hussein Obama holding up his hand to be sworn in on Inauguration Day next year. And he will more than likely be swept in almost landslide proportions, too.
If we were to believe all the pundits when this began, this was to be either Hillary Clinton’s or Rudolph Giuliani’s moment in the sun. Everybody knew that Hillary was to be the Chosen One, selected by the bigwigs to continue the legacy established by her husband Bill to take back the till of state from the not-so-steady hands of George W. Bush and steer it back in the proper direction. Well…everybody except those few Republicans who thought that Rudy G’s sterling leadership (actually, no so, IMHO) of New York City in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks would vault him to the White House.
Problem was, someone forgot to tell the public that.
On the Democratic side, Obama brought both the enthusiasm and the most organized and cohesive political ground game this side of Howard Dean, not to mention the fundraising juggernaut that used to only come from Republicans to first run even with, then simply blow away Hillary and Bill in the early primaries. Though, Hillary was able to mine the newness of Obama and just a wee bit of White working-class backlash to stay alive enough in the latter primaries to make things close.
Conversely on the Republican side, the conservative Reaganite/Bushite GOP base basically repudiated Giuliani as a crossdressing liberal and threw their support to Arizona Senator John McCain, survivor of the Hanoi Hilton and the Keating Five savings and loan scandal-cum-”maverick” moderate reformer.
For a while, it really did look like this would be a race too close to call, and a classic donnybrook decided mostly on race versus anti-Dubya resentment; with the Hillary supporters and PUMAs being the balance.
And then….Sarah Palin’s not-so-excellent GOP Vice Presidential adventure, the economic meltdown, the financial bailout, McCain’s own senior moments, and the grass roots mobilization of Obama’s forces happened….and the dynamics drastically changed to where we are today.
And where exactly are we today, you ask?
This is the latest map from ElectoralVote.com, which gives a prediction based on an averaging of the latest polls released today. Blue is for Obama and red is for McCain, and the darker the shade, the stronger the state is for that candidate. The white states with the borders are considered tossup states leaning to the color of the borders; totally white states are true tossups, up for grabs to either candidate.
Based on that map, and if the predictions do hold for tomorrow’s vote, Obama would coast to an easy 353-185 Electoral College blowout of McCain (270 votes are required to win, in case you don’t know). Maybe not a true landslide, but a pretty good ass kicking nevertheless.
Or, to put it in another way: If Obama holds on to all the darkest shaded blue states, which includes all the states John Kerry won in his quixotic loss to Dubya in 2004, then adds all the so called “weak” states shaded in solid light blue where he holds an average of a 5% to 10% margin over McCain, he racks up 311 electoral votes automatically…without even counting the really close tossup states.
Orrrrrrr….if you really want to understand what a pretty position BHO IS in: McCain would have to win all the tossup states, all of the “:weak” Obama states, AND pull off the upset in Pennsylvania (or, if he can’t win PA, sweep the “weak” Obama states AND the tossups from both sides), plus his own solid states, just to pull off the victory. (There is one scenario for an exact 269-269 EV tie, which would have the election then decided in the House of Representative under the one elector per state rule….which would still more than likely favor Obama anyway with the Dems in control.)
Oh, but it gets even worse for McSame….if Obama flips all the McCain tossup states (GA, AZ, MT, MO, and IN) while holding all of his own states alloted to him, he gets up to 402 electoral votes compared to JohnnyMac’s 132….and that would officially be declared a landslide.
Personally, I’m willing to split the difference (McCain ekes out MT, AZ, ND, and MO; while Obama takes FL, NC, and GA), making my personal prediction Obama 368, McCain 170.
As for popular vote total: I see Obama coasting with around 51.7-52.4% of the pop vote, McCain averaging around 47.5-48%, and the third party candidates (McKinney, Nader, Barr, and the rest) fighting for the rest.
And then, there is the vote for the Congress:
In the Senate, the Dems will post BIG gains, but will probably fall a seat or two short of gaining that 60-vote filibuster-proof majority they so crave. I’m calling for at least seven seats to be turned over; with the possibility of the eighth flip coming from Georgia if John Martin can force Saxby Chambliss (he of the vicious attack on Max Cleland) to a runoff by holding him below the 50% + 1 threshold. (There is a Libertarian candidate on the ballot that might allow that scenario to happen.) With Mary Landrieu set to coast to a modestly easy win in Louisiana, there will be no Dems (even conservative Dems) losing their seats; but 6 Rep seats will flip immediately, with the 7th possibly coming later. Assuming that happens, the US Senate will have 57 Dems, 41 Reps, and 2 “Inds” (Lieberman (CT), for the moment, and Sanders (VT) both caucus with the Dems). It would take a real landslide scenario to flip any more Senate seats to the Dems (MS-B and KY are possible reaches).
In the House, I expect the Dems to continue the roll that they established in 2006 by gaining at least 20 to 25 more seats, and if the coattails of Obama really grow nicely, they could even flip a net gain of 30 seats. There will be a difference, however…unlike ‘06, they will lose a seat or two. Seeing Michele Bachmann (she of the “investigate all anti-American Dems/liberals” smack) and Marilyn Musgrave (”cut-and-run”) get their asses kicked out would be a nice bonus.
And finally, there is that evil Proposition Eight in California, that would impose a ban on gay marriages into the Cali Constitution. The latest polls do have it going down to defeat, but it is a bit too close for comfort. There is also an interesting local proposition in San Francisco regarding decriminalization of prostitution and sex work that has been flying under the media radar but has been generating much heat; more info can be found here.
All in all, sounds like an interesting day tomorrow. Either way, there will be plenty of not-so-dry eyes…whether for the joy of history being made or the grief of utter shock and despair.
And although I’m still going to stick to my original plan and vote for Cynthia McKinney, I will be one happy ‘Dog to see BHO hopefully wipe the floor with McSame and Caribou Eva.
Most of all….this one will be for Mrs. Toot, who will probably be smiling with Miss Molly up above, watching the celebration. Presente, Mrs. Dunham….you raised a fine man.
And to you right-wing GOP trolls and snakes who will be abusing yourselves when the ultimate asskicking comes your way tomorrow: Just. Plain. Deal.
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