Smackdown 2008: …And Down The Stretch They Come!!!
Love Me, I'm A Liberal...NOT!!!, Political Smackdown 2008!!! October 27th, 2008
Just over 240 hours to go before the 2008 election season reaches its close, gangstas and gangstrices.
Remember those heady days last February when the matchup was assumed to be Hillary Clinton versus Rudolph Giuliani in a New York-style Battle Royal???
Seems like a decade ago, doesn’t it??
Almost as long ago as the predictions of a John McCain rout thanks to the nomination of Sarah Palin as his XO (executive officer, Navy term), the seeming hostility of the Hillary groupies towards Barack Obama’s historic campaign, and the usual Republican advantages in voter fixing and voter suppression.
How prophetic do those predictions seem right about now?? Like…not very???
That is the current (October 27th) Presidential Electoral College map courtesy of Electoral-Vote.com. which uses an averaging system of current and most recent polls for each state to reach a current count on where the candidates stand. Red is for McCain and blue is for Obama; white *as in Montana and North Dakota) is a state that is seen as a tie; and the darker the shading, the more solid the state’s voting is for that particular candidate. States with borders reflect close “leaner” states only slightly favoring the candidate colored in the border (Florida and North Carolina leaning for Obama; Arizona and Georgia leaning McCain).
For those who wish for a numerical summary of that map, it converts into Obama/Biden having 375 electoral votes, McCain/Palin ending up with 157, and 6 EV’s still up for grabs as “tied”.
Whoa. Seriously….WHOA.
And how about this map for your viewing pleasure??
That map is from a different but equally badass Electoral College prediction site, FiveThirtyEight.com, which uses a fundamentally different formula using statisical regression analysis and poll breakdown for predicting what will happen on November 4th. Their formula does have a slightly less routy final solution for Obama, but pretty damn healthy nevertheless.
“But..oh, come on, ‘Dog,” you say..”don’t those sites have a somewhat LIBERAL bias??? What are the conservatives saying about this election?? Surely, McCain must have enough support to make this an election close enough to steal….errrrrrrr, pull out??”
Well, Clones, I give you this map from a solidly conservative site, Election Projection.com:
Their final numbers, based on the map above: Obama 375, McCain 173.
So much for the Bradley Effect.
In fact, just to show in what stout shape Obama is looking right about now, check out the daily update of all the Electoral College mapping sites all amalgamated here at the Three Blue Dudes Election Projection Database site. Notice that only ONE of the over 80 sites they list predict an Obama victory….and most of them are well within landslide territory of at least 340 EV’s or more. (The single holdout is a wingnut site that basically retreads National Review talking points….and even they can get McCain no higher than 273 EV’s, barely a majority.)
But, you know….Hillary would be approaching 430 EV’s by now, right??? There’s still time for Obama to do the right thing and back out and allow the real candidate to step forward and save him from certain defeat, you know??? Heh.
Of course, an ass-kicking like this will have its benefits…like the prospect of a monster majority of Democrats in Congress like Tip O’Neill used to enjoy (most predictions are that the Dems could turn at least 20-30 Repub seats, with the not-so-outside shot at 35-40); a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate (most predictions favor a gain of at least 7 Senate seats, getting them 57 total, not including independents Lieberman (CT) and Sanders (VT), which would put them just one vote shy of the magic number), and a huge mandate to enact real changes without much obstruction from the circular firing squad that will become the Republican Party.
Now, the “glass-is-always-half-empty” folk will remind us at about this time that it’s still a week away from the actual election, and anything that could change the dynamics could happen. Early voting, which has mostly favored Democrats due to a record Black registration/GOTV turnout, could end up not being as strong as predicted. The Repubs might convince a few “working class Democrats…White Democrats” that Obama really is the Antichrist who’s masking his inner Wright/Ayers/bin Laden White-hating, America-hating terrorist. Diebold and the Vote Cagers could still attempt a mass strike to suppress and throw out Dem votes. And remember..these are DEMOCRATS, who are historic with blowing away opportunities when given the chance.
On the other hand, though…not even the usual Dem ineptitude and Joe Biden’s mouth can even come close to topping the degree of EPIC FAIL that the Repubs have fallen themselves into. Between JohnnyMac’s numerous “senior moments”, Caribou Eva Braun’s loose lips (the ones on her face, Clones….damn, get Lisa Ann off your brains!!!) and Leona Helmsley-like satorial tastes , the gross incompetence of the Repub dirty tricks machine and propaganda (from “Joe the Plumber” to Ashley Hill’s attempted Susan Smith fraud) and the continuing tanking of the economy, there’s more than enough to conclude that even the magic of Karl Rove could save them.
Or….maybe it’s just because the Dems finally got it right this time and nominated a man who fits the modern world so perfectly. Can’t beat a guy who is so frugal that he soles his own shoes. And a woman as his wife who actually seems like…..a classy and normal First Lady.
Being the recalitrant leftie that I am, I still think BHO will be too much of a centrist for my taste, and I still plan on casting my vote for Cynthia McKinney and the Greens just for the sake of protest; and to further the effort of an independent Left opposition to the Democrats. But, I guess that when Barack Obama steps up to the victory celebration after Virginia or Colorado or some other state seals the deal and the networks officially make the call for him as the Next President of the United States, there will be more than a few not-so-dry eyes in the house….and two of them will probably be mine. Leftie or not, that moment would be 400 years overdue….and not just for getting rid of Dubya and the neo-CONS, either.
But..let’s seal the deal one week from tomorrow, first. Get out and vote; make sure your vote isn’t stolen from you…and most of all: Kick. Their. ASSES. (The right way..with your votes.)
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