From Gustav’s Hammer To (Almost) Ike’s Nuke (Why Hurricane Season Really SUCKS Right About Now)
Kickin' It From "Da Boot", Miscellany Hootenany September 13th, 2008
Well…we go here in South Louisiana from getting smacked by Gustav’s hammer to getting whacked by Ike’s forearm shiver in less than a week.
Radar image of Hurricane Ike making landfall on Galveston Bay as a Category 2/Category 3 hurricane (via WeatherUnderground)
Some thoughts and prayers are in order for the folks in the Houston/Galveston and Golden Triangle (Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange) areas that bore the full brunt of Ike’s fury….and as bad as it was, it still could have been that much worse had the storm hit 20-30 miles west and had a few more hours of Gulf water to strengthen.
And a prayer for those in the Lake Charles/Cameron area would be thoughtful of you as well….they got hit pretty hard, too.
Now if we can get over the next 24 hours of playing Tornado Tag and the 40-50 mph wind gusts, it will be all clear up here.
Nothing near what we got with Gus, but considering that the storm went inland 250 miles to our west, still quite impressive.
The weather pros are telling us that the polar jet up north is going to get more active and start bringing some cooling fronts and westerlies down starting next week…so this may be the beginning of the end for this run of hurricanes raking the Gulf of late. Gee….I sincerely do hope so.
Just a quote from my favorite hurricane expert — Jeff Masters of Weather Underground — on the massive wallop that Ike brought to Southeast Texas…and how it could have been that much worse, if imaginable:
Although Ike caused heavy damage by flooding Galveston with a 12-foot storm surge, the city escaped destruction thanks to its 15.6-foot sea wall (the wall was built 17 feet high, but has since subsided about 2 feet). The surge was able to flow into Galveston Bay and flood the city from behind, but the wall prevented a head-on battering by the surge from the ocean side. Galveston was fortunate that Ike hit the city head-on, rather than just to the south. Ike’s highest storm surge occurred about 50 miles to the northeast of Galveston, over a lightly-populated stretch of coast. Galveston was also lucky that Ike did not have another 12-24 hours over water. In the 12 hours prior to landfall, Ike’s central pressure dropped 6 mb, and the storm began to rapidly organize and form a new eyewall. If Ike had had another 12-24 hours to complete this process, it would have been a Category 4 hurricane with 135-145 mph winds that likely would have destroyed Galveston. The GFDL model was consistently advertising this possibility, and it wasn’t far off the mark. It was not clear to me until late last night that Ike would not destroy Galveston and kill thousands of people. Other hurricane scientists I conversed with yesterday were of the same opinion.
Imagine 120+ mph winds in downtown Houston, folks…..and you see how they escaped a nuke.
This is exactly why they say that if you are asked to evacuate, get the hell out. Hurricanes and cyclones are serious business.
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